The price of copper surged to record highs in 2026, exceeding $14,000 per tonne in May. The global demand for the refined metal reached almost 28Mt in 2025, an increase of 3.7% from 2024 say the IEA in their Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.
India, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia continued to record really strong demand growth and Viet Nam saw a massive increase in demand driven by rapid industrial and infrastructure development.
Africa is the dark horse though. The volumes may be relatively low, but the IEA says the continent was the fastest-growth region of demand for copper.
Pressure on copper demand
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026 created new pressure around sulphuric acid, which is very necessary to primary copper leaching, solvent extraction and electrowinning (using an electric current to pull pure metal out of a liquid solution) operations. This was further exacerbated by China’s ban on sulphuric acid exports, creating anxiety around supply and price rises.
“Over 15% of global primary copper output is produced using sulphuric acid leaching and is therefore affected by the conflict, with the DRC and Chile the most vulnerable countries, as they have the largest sulphuric acid-based operations.
“Given that the majority of cobalt is produced as a by-product of copper mining in the DRC or from nickel HPAL intermediate production in Indonesia, cobalt production is also affected.”
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Supply side
The copper supply gap remains sizeable because of new project development. The metal is important because it plays a fundamental role across sectors such as energy, transport, data centres, defence and construction.
While the outlook for demand for this very necessary metal is strong, the biggest challenge is developing new mines. Even though prices are reaching record levels, project development is insufficient.
“Based on the project pipeline, global primary copper supply could face a 25% deficit in 2035 under today’s policy settings,” say the IEA.
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Copper grades are degrading
A key challenge to developing new mines is the declining copper ore grades, “with the average global grade of copper mines having decreased by 40% since 1991“. This has increased both capital cost and project complexity.
There are an increasing number of projects with a high chance of materialising on the horizon, which has led to a narrowing of the projected deficit from 30% in last year’s Outlook to just more than 25% in this year’s base case for 2035.
“Africa is the greatest source of increased supply, with the DRC and Zambia together adding almost 650kt in 2035 compared to last year’s Outlook.”
In the DRC, this increase is driven by higher projected output from Chinese-backed Malachite ore operations. There are also significant project expansions, such as Chinese CMOC Group’s Kisanfu mine expansion and Canadian Barrick Gold’s expansion of the Lumwana mine in Zambia.
But, for the moment, the metal’s prices are already at near record highs and introducing more supply strains will only drive the price higher. This will impact a range of technologies that depend on copper, such as electricity grids, energy technologies, transport, data centres, industrial equipment, defence and construction.
Recycling copper is an old habit
The report points out that copper already benefits from a 10% recycling rate, excluding direct use of scrap. This could increase to around 20% by 2040, supported by improvements in collection, sorting and processing systems.
Copper scrap, though, apparently presents a significant but underexploited source of supply. The share of demand met by secondary supply increased in 2025 to 18%, up a percentage point from the previous year. This share is expected to increase in 2026, given the surge in pricing.
Of interest Cobalt mining and the DRC effect
Still, the collection rate for end-of-life copper products remains relatively low.
“If collection rates are significantly increased through targeted policy support, secondary supply could become a major source of global copper supply, potentially meeting over a third of global copper demand by 2050 in the STEPS [Stated Policies Scenario]”, say the IEA.
The International Copper Association notes that copper has the world’s longest recycling history of all metals, with most copper products containing more than 30% recycled material.
The Association estimates that in the last 100 years, two-thirds of the 690 million tonnes of copper produced are still in productive use. Still, if recycling is to become truly effective, innovation is needed, and the Association suggests that endeavours supporting copper recycling could be implemented in new product design to facilitate end-of-life recovery.
Find out more in the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report
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