As South Africa’s onshore wind market matures alongside solar PV and battery storage, strong asset stewardship across an ageing wind fleet is becoming urgent. Our first utility-scale wind farms have been operating for over a decade. How we operate, maintain and repower them will shape investor confidence in everything that follows.
How do we protect the performance, safety and long-term value of South Africa’s wind assets as the fleet grows and ages?
Working across the energy transition value chain and chairing the South African Wind Energy Association (SAWEA) Asset Management Standing Committee, I see both commercial realities and the broader socio-economic picture. We must confront difficult issues early and turn hard-won lessons into shared knowledge.
The foundations are promising. By September 2026, operational capacity stood at 5,153MW across 50 plants. However, with the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 projecting 43GW by 2042, we must build at roughly eight times the average annual rate achieved since 2014. The operating fleet is the evidence base that lenders, insurers, regulators and communities will use to judge the next wave of projects.
What happens when the wind fleet reaches end of life?
We must prepare now for life after the power purchase agreement (PPA). The earliest 20-year Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) PPAs expire in the mid-2030s. Owners must decide whether to
- extend turbine life,
- repower with larger machines,
- hybridise with solar and storage, or
- transition to private offtake.
Groundwork laid today – component condition data, fatigue assessments and clear grid access – is essential.
SAWEA collaborated with the CSIR on a lifecycle-based resource for owners and operators. Concurrently, our committee addresses everyday fleet challenges: retrofits, OEM component obsolescence, business continuity, SCADA cybersecurity and specialised standards for lifts, towers, foundations and blades.
Recurring defects like blade delamination show why shared solutions matter – fixing problems in isolation forces every owner to pay for the same lesson.
Curtailment remains a primary operational strain. It occurs when system operators instruct wind farms to reduce output due to transmission congestion or grid constraints. The wind blows, but power goes unused, causing independent power producers (IPPs) to lose revenue. Long settlement delays for deemed energy claims put severe pressure on cash flow and debt service cover ratios.
Have you read? How renewables are curtailing the grid
Curtailment risk and grid optimisation
SAWEA’s June 2026 survey captured the severity of the impact the time:
- 78% of 21 responding operational wind farms experienced cashflow strain from delayed deemed energy payments,
- 61% renegotiated debt covenants,
- seven suspended shareholder distributions, and
- 43% reported delayed community trust payments.
While much of that backlog has since been settled and payment processes are being streamlined, the experience illustrates the very real consequences that delayed deemed-energy settlements can have for project liquidity, lender confidence and community commitments. Curtailment must be treated as a long-term feature of a constrained network, managed through consistent measurement standards, transparent reporting and sustainable commercial frameworks.
SAWEA maintains that turbine underperformance, grid unavailability and instructed curtailment must be classified separately, in line with the IEC 61400-26 availability standards.
These challenges require industry-wide answers. This will be a central topic at the Windaba Conference and Exhibition in Cape Town on 6 and 7 October 2026, where SAWEA will release its IRP 2025 analysis. Dedicated sessions will focus on CPA (Central Purchasing Agency) payment updates, lender perspectives on curtailment risk, and grid optimisation with the National Control Centre.
Looking to 2027, the operating environment will demand execution and performance over megawatt allocation. Reaching 43GW by 2042 requires adding roughly 2.7GW of new capacity annually – a goal achievable only if we share knowledge, address network bottlenecks and ensure our existing fleet remains safe, reliable and productive.
About the Author
Mamoso May is a director at Artemis Group Holdings and chairs SAWEA’s Asset Management Standing Committee
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