Lithium demand globally of 275kt in 2025 represented a 23% year-on-year growth, well above that seen in other commodity markets. “The expansion reflects the continued acceleration of electrification. Demand from EVs rose by 20% to 170kt, while demand from battery storage reached 30kt,” said the IEA in their Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.
China accounted for around 90% of the increase in global lithium demand. Korea was second on that list at +4.2kt and Central Europe third at +1.4 kt. That is because these countries are the places where battery material production capacity is being developed.
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Lithium prices rebounded quite sharply in early 2026. Lithium carbonate prices practically doubling over a short period to about $20,000 a tonne of lithium carbonate equivalent.
This mirrored the tightening upstream supply conditions caused by overseas bans on ore exports by Zimbabwe, as well as the tighter permitting in China’s Jiangxi region. Downstream cathode buyers restocking also added to price pressure.
This marked a recovery after two years of weak market conditions, when oversupply and destocking pushed prices down.
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Diversifying lithium mining driven by African suppliers
Argentina saw faster growth output of lithium than the historical major producers of Chile, China and Australia in 2025. New entrants from Africa though are reshaping the lithium supply landscape as mined output grew by 44%. This helped to diversify supply but also introduced infrastructure and logistics challenges.
South America’s lithium triangle of Argentina, Bolivia and Chile, together with China and Australia, account for the majority of lithium supplies, but African nations now represent 14% of global supply.
This is a 26-fold increase from 2020 to 2025.
While Africa’s lithium mining is contributing to diversification of supply, there is also a reinforcement of dominance in refining at play, as more than 65% of the new lithium mining capacity in Africa is owned by companies which are headquartered in China.
Small-scale mining is also slowly expanding in Africa, which brings with it its own challenges.
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Localising refining of lithium in Africa
The first half of 2026 saw the start of a lithium refining plant in Africa as the China-owned Zhejiang Huayou factory opened in Zimbabwe. The $4 million plant is designed to refine around 6.5kt in the form of sulphate “which can then be further refined overseas into carbonate or hydroxide and then battery chemicals.”
In the middle of August, the Nasarawa State Governor in Nigeria signed an agreement with Diamond New Energy to strengthen the supply of lithium feedstock to the company’s processing plant in the state.
The lithium refinery plant, commissioned on 2 July, processes around 6,000 tonnes of ore a day in Nasarawa State and should eventually be complemented by a planned $200 million lithium refinery being built on the outskirts of Abuja, Nigeria. The resulting high-purity lithium concentrates goes to China to be converted into battery-grade materials.
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Also in July 2026, the AfDB approved a €100 million loan to Gotion Power Morocco to finance the development of an integrated cathode-to-cell lithium iron phosphate battery gigafactory in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra Free Trade Zone, 60km north of Rabat, Morocco.
These cell and battery packs are for EVs, and the phase 1 of the project is for up to 10GWh, with subsequent phases of the project to be able to ramp up by up to 100GWh. The facility is expected to be the first integrated and operational cathode-to-cell manufacturing plant in the Middle East and North Africa.
Find out more in the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 report
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